Wow, I posted this article on another website and I received a slew of responses, mostly from musicians. One of whom took me to task for taking a broad, macro point of view on record companies. The main reason is because I really don't believe the future of the industry relies solely on the selling of recorded music. In my next planned post, I wanted to take a detailed, micro view of the music industry as a whole and see if we can find the answer there.
As it stands, the good debater in me must respond and here are my responses along with the musicians' points:
Dissent: "In short, file sharing on the internet is only possible b/c someone paid for the recording time and a format to distribute in."
Response: ***But the record labels and the publishers aren't making any money off of it.***
That's my main point. And when the record companies finally go out of business, who will pay for the recording and file format? You already said it: the artists. And most of them are paying for it right now.
Dissent: "I think the music and recording industry is going to essentially turn into a form of cable tv eventually. The majority will be paid for by advertising, and the rest will go to subscription services with a sort of pay per view/download/etc. for special releases and such."
Response: You essentially prove me right by saying that music will go to subscription services. Already, you're talking about a different business model, one that does not operate on tracking album sales and paying unit royalties. In this scenario, music, like most of cable TV, is a passive medium, which the current business model does not account for.
Dissent: ""As long as bands need a way to record music to spread it, the recording industry will survive."
Response: But record labels won't. The one thing that record labels provided bands was the financial capital to record, promote, and tour. And it still doesn't address the problem that the majority of consumers refuse to purchase recordings at a price and at a rate that would provide an overall profit that is sustainable for the long run.
Recordings are money losing ventures, with the exceptions of the people who facilitate the recording i.e. the producers and the studios. But they alone cannot make a record industry. If the recordings fail to turn a profit for a company (either a record label or an artist), then what financial incentive do they have to keep investing?
Dissent: ""We are living in a time of some pretty awesome music and as Brian said there will always need to be someone there to distribute it."
Only if the distribution of said music makes the distributer money. And even still, if the distributor wasn't the one who put up the capital for the recording, then the producer of the good is still not receiving the distribution profit. The fringe people of the industry, (the producers, the engineers, the duplication companies, the distribution companies) offer a service, not a product. The producers offer to record, the engineers offer to mix, the duplication people offer to make copies, etc, etc, but they are not in business to make sure that record makes money. Not in the macro sense. The majority of these people get paid regardless of how the record performs, (unless they've signed a shitty deal based upon royalties). The record companies are the ones who are concerned with the recorded music's performance. They alone are responsible for getting a return on their invested capital that is used, by the way, to pay for the services of the producer, the engineer, the duplication, and the distribution.
Dissent: "The other thing that is becoming even more important than ever which is creating more jobs in the industry is licensing and placement of music. This is the industry that I am attempting to get into. Video games have blown the world of Music Supervision wide open especially with games like Rock Band and Guitar Hero, some bands will actually sell more tracks as Guitar Hero downloads than they will at online stores like iTunes and Amazon. These sources of revenue have become extremely important as artists become less dependent on revenue from record sales. Also think about the licensing that goes into shows like American Idol and Nashville Star, those artists whose songs appear on those and other similar reality shows make a lot of money of the licensing and essentially get free advertising by having their songs appear in prime time spots."
Response: Agreed. Music supervision is a great thing, however, it's a flooded market. Because every one and their brother are trying to get their song on Grey's Anatomy or its other television equivalent, do you think that the television and movie studios are going to raise their price or drop it? I'd expect the latter, because every one is desperate to find a way to get these recordings to make money. And if you don't take their price, someone else will.
Also, in response to American Idol and Nashville Star, the publishers do make a return on the licensing of their songs, but the record companies aren't making that big a return. They get to sign the winners to contracts after the show's season has ended. So they're not making money during the show's season: the TV producers and advertisers are.
As American Idol has proven, out of all the top 6 of the past 8 or so seasons, only 3 artists have made any significant return in record sales. There have been 8 seasons of American Idol. The top 6 are signed to record contracts. So 48 artists are signed, only 3 have made returns. 3 out of 48 is 6.25%. But they're all not on the same label. For the sake of argument, let's say all 3 were on differently owned labels. That's roughly 2% per label. It's not significant enough return to cover the costs the labels have had to produce, market, duplicate, and distribute their product (which is the recorded piece of music).
Another issue I didn't address but eluded to is price standard: with all of these variations of how music is sold and consumed, the labels and the publishers can't set a price standard. One online company sells downloads for 99 cents, another has the first 5 free, then charges 5 cents for the next, 10 cents for the next and so on, others offer free streaming, another offers streaming for a fee.
And the record companies and the publishers, because they didn't get on the technological bandwagon back in the early 90's like they should have, don't have a say in these technological companies nor do they have any bargaining power. Once Apple came up with iTunes, Apple was the one who set the price standard of 99 cents, not the record labels.
Had they been smart, the labels and publishers would've worked with Apple, funded some of their development, and taken a percentage of every iPod and iTunes software sale under the guise of a performance royalty like those charged of restaurants and clubs. Imagine what their profits would've been.
As it stands, record labels and publishers are at the mercy of technology companies such as Apple, Sprint, and Verizon. Apple's not making the majority of their money off the download sales. Their true profit is in the sales of the iPods, iPhones, and the actual iTunes software. Sprint and Verizon view music as an added bonus application. Music is secondary. Think you can raise your price when these companies view the one product you have to sell as a secondary function? Most likely, you'll have to keep lowering your price.
Which doesn't solve the main problem of the current record industry: how does an individual recorded piece of music make money? It's obviously not making enough, otherwise the industry would not be in the turmoil it is today.